Monthly Archives: February 2014

To hit the reset button on time shares

shares reset 614xa

shares are flat this year. Imagine the first two months of 2014 did not happen and again.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Paul R. La Monica. Other than Time Warner, the parent company of CNNMoney, and Abbott Laboratories AbbVie, La Monica does not own positions in individual stocks.

The first two months of the year are almost complete. And if you’re obsessed with the daily fluctuations of the market, it seems that little has changed on Wall Street in 2014.

to trade stocks right to where we finished last year. The S & P 500 by 0.1% so far this year.

But the story is a bit more complicated than that. If the market were a baseball game (spring training has begun!) Bulls and Bears would be tied after the first run.

And what

eventful inning it was! (Please forgive me tortured my baseball analogy. If half sleeves are equivalent months and one year only six innings.)

Related: Stop overreacting to the turmoil in emerging markets

If you are not paying attention, wearing swinging for the fences in January. You miss the Bulls good enough with concerns about three Es: emerging markets, the profits and the economy. Thus, the S & P 500 looked after just one month.

But the Bulls have their rally caps in February. The market roared to life this month with the hope that the new president of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen, the development of the central bank to manage stimulus – the dreaded shrinkage times -. Successfully

rel=”nofollow” href=””> Related : market needs a correction. But this is not 1929! Contributed

Some reports better results. And it was less global worries … Despite Ukraine.

Finally, there is a growing number of poor labor market for January and February anomalies could be weather related consensus. This can prove to be a false assumption. But here’s how the S & P 500 was in February.

now? Or to quote the Alan Parsons Project, where we go from here?

(Confession. I was a geek of the band at the university. For some strange reason, “Games People Play,” was our repertoire. Did not know why. I was a student Bachelor in the 90s. Think some of this trendy grunge then have football fans and basketball joined over a prog rock song cheese of 1980)

That’s why we press the reset button. Claim do not exist, the first two months. It was a dream. Since this season on “Dallas” (the original), Bobby Ewing died.

It’s time to focus on all the data that will come in the coming weeks and months.

I do not know what will happen next. And no one does. Any expert who know with absolute certainty whether the markets will continue to rise or not alleged can not be trusted. Seriously.

you have concerns that a month ago, investors literally panic. The target = “_blank” href = “”> , which measures seven sentiment indicators been flashing signs of fear. Now? He is back on the territory of greed.

Related: She’s back! Yellen speaks on the economy before the Senate

But here’s what I know. The big wild card will be the economy. The small number of jobs were created in December and January really only because of the snow? It is impossible to answer this question at this time.

Sorry, we can not get much more clarity next week when the government released the employment and the unemployment rate for February. The weather was pretty ugly (unless you are a polar bear) to most countries in February. Employment figures could be awkward accordingly.

However, if we have a clearer picture of the health of the labor market – or lack thereof -. that many other things that investors need to know to help them understand what then determine shares

Related : Employment growth is weak … but only because of the weather

If the number of jobs continue to fall, may have the Fed, tapering to rethink his plans. This could be seen as a short term positive. But make no mistake. This is a long-term negative.

what. Refer to an economic crisis … or worse, a new recession is bad news … This could kill the housing recovery. It could hurt consumer spending. And this could result in lower profits business.

This last point is that Wall Street cares more … even if most average Americans are apparently attempting to protect more concerned about their jobs and the value of the houses around the margins. As well they should.

Related: Good and bad news about business sales

It is hoped that the weakness in recent months on the job market is actually a godsend. If this is the case, the Fed its plan to weaning may slow the baby from the nipple, the quantitative easing is to stay left.

Yes, the interest rates are probably more than what they already increasing as a result. But they will probably do it gradually. And traders will learn to live with it.


It may be too simple, but a healthier economy should continue to lead gains in equities. But do not expect a further increase of 30% in the last year we have had for the S & P-500.

Let me change what I said earlier. I think I can safely make a prediction market. It is also volatile. Bulls and bears do not have a lot of laps at bat before this year is over.


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